Strategic considerations – the South China Sea and China

With its narrow profile and long coastline, it is no surprise that the neighbouring South China Sea is the key to Vietnam’s future prosperity. (KYM TO TASHA, BPS) Economists estimate up to 55% of Vietnam’s GDP by 2020 will stem from the marine economy, and 55-60% of exports will arise from the sea. The South China Sea and mineral-rich Spratly and Paracel Islands are a regional point of tension, yet Vietnam’s economic development and national security are bound up with them. As well as seafloor hydrocarbon deposits, the Spratly Islands straddle international sea routes and are home to rich fishing grounds. One important new industry is oil, with Vietnam now the third-largest oil producer in Southeast Asia with daily outputs of 400,000 barrels. Chinese pressure on foreign oil companies such as Exxon Mobil and BP has previously curbed exploration and development of Vietnamese oilfields in the area.

China, Vietnam and Taiwan claim the island groups in their entirety, but one key sticking problem is China’s claim to almost the whole of the South China Sea, even where it directly cuts into the EEZ of countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. Today around 2,000 Vietnamese people occupy 30 islands in the southern grouping of the Spratly Islands, territory it has claimed since the 17th century. China already operates oilfields in the north, while Vietnam has established them in the centre and south. A minor naval battle over the Spratly Islands took place in 1988.

The Paracel Islands are claimed by Vietnam, but it has no presence there. Instead, China staked its claims on the Paracels after it defeated the South Vietnam Navy in a small naval battle in 1974. A PLAN garrison is currently stationed there and an airfield was constructed on Woody Island. The military balance between China and Vietnam has obviously swung heavily in China’s favour. Ironically, many of the weapons that Vietnam relies upon are already operated by China! The South Sea Fleet is the jewel in the PLAN’s crown, with new facilities being constructed at Sanya Naval Base on Hainan Island. China’s naval modernisation poses the greatest threat to Vietnam, and in any conflict it would have to combat both the PLAN and PLAAF. The Spratly Islands come within range of Vietnamese Su-30 fighters, and Vietnam is intent on building numerous small and fast ships equipped with missiles to counter the superiority of the PLAN. Vietnam is very interested in ballistic missiles, and it already deploys the 300km-range SS-N-26 Yakhont anti-ship cruise missile able to strike PLAN bases on Hainan. Vietnam is reportedly interested in the SS-26 Iskander-E ballistic missile with a range of 260km as well.

Relations with China have traditionally been strained, despite both countries being communist led. Relations reached rock bottom in 1979 with the outbreak of the Sino-Vietnamese War when China invaded northern Vietnam with 200,000 troops in response to the latter’s occupation of Cambodia. Chinese troops withdrew a month later under a scorched-earth policy. Both sides claimed victory, but the war showed up the poor performance of the PLA. In 1999, after protracted negotiations, the two countries signed a border pact, although border demarcation was reportedly not completed till January 2009.

Offensive Tests Obama's Afghan Strategy

WASHINGTON--The offensive in the Marjah district of Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan, which began Saturday, is a test of President Obama’s new strategy, part of a broader counterinsurgency plan that will unfold over the next several months.

Top American officials say the three-day-old operation is going well, despite a setback Sunday in which a dozen Afghan civilians appear to have been killed during a rocket strike. That is significant because current U.S.-NATO strategy puts the protection of the civilian population ahead of killing enemy fighters.

The Marjah offensive is considered the biggest operation the U.S. has mounted in Afghanistan since American forces arrived in October 2001. It differs from previous offensives in other ways, too: The U.S. and allied troops are in a stronger partnership with Afghan forces than ever before, with many more Afghan soldiers and police in the fight; and the Afghan government approved the Marjah operation in recent days, unlike other operations sometimes conducted without the consent of Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai.

While in and of itself the offensive will not be a “game changer,” say American military officials, it could create the conditions to see if the new strategy, which puts nearly 100,000 Americans in Afghanistan by the end of this year, will work.

India to Spend $ 200 Billion on Defence Systems by 2022

New Delhi. India is set to spend a whopping US$ 200 billion on defence acquisitions over the next 12 years to replace its outdated Soviet-vintage inventory.

According to a study by the India Strategic defence magazine, nearly half of this funding, or $ 100 billion, will go to the Indian Air Force (IAF) which would need to replace more than half of its combat jet fleet as well as the entire transport aircraft and helicopter fleet. The Army needs new guns, tanks, rocket launchers, multi-terrain vehicles while the Navy needs ships, aircraft carriers, an entire new range of submarines including nuclear-propelled and nuclear-armed, and so on.

The Army has the largest requirement of helicopters while the Navy needs both combat jets, helicopters, and a fleet of nearly 100 carrier-borne combat jets.

The details of the study will be published in March but according to a brief report in India Strategic’s DefExpo show daily being published Feb 15, it is not that India has military ambitions but just that more than 70 per cent of the inventory of the Indian Armed Forces is 20-plus years old, and needs to be replaced as well as augmented with the sophistication of modern technology.

There have been few defence deals after the allegations over the acquisition of Bofors in the 1980s, and Russia, which inherited the Soviet military infrastructure, is unable to meet all the requirements. Also, according to official Russian reports, only 10 per cent of the Russian weapons could be described as modern and Russia itself needs to spend heavily on modernization.

All the three Indian Services as well as the Coast Guard and paramilitary organizations also need satellites and net centricity. Plans to acquire surveillance aircraft, lesser in capability though than the IAF’s Phalcon AWACs and the Navy’s P8-I Multi-mission Maritime Aircraft (MMA) are also being worked out by all the three Services.

Pilotless intelligence aircraft (drones) generally called UAVs, including those armed, are also on the top of the list of the three Services.

It may be noted for instance that the only major aircraft to be acquired by the IAF in the last 20 years is the Su 30 MKI, some 280 of which have been ordered in successive follow-on deals, which do not involve fresh tendering and are easy to go through procedurally.

IAF has a plan to build 45 combat squadrons (about 900 aircraft), up from its maximum effective strength of 39.5 squadrons a few years ago. Many of its older aircraft, mostly those of Mig series, have already been phased out due to simple ageing, while some have been upgraded awaiting new acquisitions.

The Armed Forces have repeatedly been telling the government for the last several years, particularly after Pakistan’s intrusion into the Indian side of Kashmir resulting into the 1999 Kargil War that the need to replace the old weapons and systems was paramount. Not much moved.

But the 26/11 attack on Mumbai by Pakistani terrorists, in which scores were brutally killed and wounded, has given a wake up call to India and the authorities are realizing that 24-hour, 360-degree eyes and years and preparedness to meet any attack are a necessity.

That also means increased diplomatic and security cooperation with other countries, and parallel efforts need to be made in that direction also.

Capability and modern weapons are a requirement both for deterrence and to punish an aggressor.

India To Boost Island Defenses To Counter China

NEW DELHI - India plans to upgrade weapons and equipment stationed at its bases on the Andaman and Nicobar island chains in the eastern Indian Ocean, a step intended to bolster defenses against China, according to defense officials here.

The Indian Air Force will place multirole Su-30MKI fighter jets on the islands and increase the number of operational airfields. Two airstrips, at Shibpur in the Andamans and at Campbell Bay in the Nicobar Islands, will be converted into all-weather bases that can support fighter operations, a senior Air Force official said.

The military also will station additional mid-air refuelers, and a variety of medium- and short-range UAVs, to keep a watch on the Chinese military base in Myanmar's nearby Coco Islands, sources said. In addition, the military will increase the number of amphibious vessels and Mi-17 combat and transport helicopters stationed in the region.

The Indian Navy also plans to buy assets and network-centric warfare systems to protect what a Navy officer called "India's island territories, which are vulnerable."

The Andaman and Nicobar chains comprise 572 islands. The southernmost islands in the Nicobar archipelago are less than 100 kilometers from Indonesia. In 2001, the Indian military established a joint command in the region to boost its ability to rapidly deploy troops there.